Social Security Trends: Beneficiaries, Total Costs, Number of Workers, Ratio of Workers to Beneficiaries

Inquiring minds are digging into social security trends including the numbers of beneficiaries, average costs, total costs, number of workers, and the ratio of workers to beneficiaries.

First, let's take a look at the CNS News report Social Security Ran $47.8 Billion Deficit in Fiscal Year 2012.

The Social Security program ran a $47.8 billion deficit in fiscal 2012 as the program brought in $725.429 billion in cash and paid $773.247 for benefits and overhead expenses, according to official data published by Social Security Administration.

The Social Security Administration also released new data revealing that the number of workers collecting disability benefits hit a record 8,827,795 in December--up from 8,805,353 in November.

With that backdrop, let's look at the actual data to see the underlying trends.

Data Notes

• Social Security data from Social Security Online.
• Employment data from St. Lois Fed Total Nonfarm Employees.
• OASI is the retirement fund (What people normally think of as Social Security)
• DI is the Social Security Disability Fund

Social Security Beneficiaries December 2012

OASI Trust Fund
Retired Workers & Dependents	Retired Worker	36,719,288
	Spouse	2,280,332
	Child	612,087
	Subtotal	39,611,707
Survivors	Child	1,907,097
	Aged Widow(er)	3,937,958
	Young Widow(er)	153,628
	Disabled Widow(er)	255,472
	Parent	1,427
	Subtotal	6,255,582
	Total OASI	45,867,289
DI Trust Fund
	Disabled Worker	8,827,795
	Spouse	162,881
	Child	1,900,220
	Total DI	10,890,896
	Total OSASI + DI	56,758,158

Social Security Beneficiaries, Costs, Employment

Year	Beneficiaries	Average Monthly Benefit	Total Annual Cost	Employment	E/B Ratio
Dec-67	22,979	$73.92	$20,383,201,682	66,900	2.9114
Dec-68	23,886	$85.24	$24,432,839,002	69,245	2.8989
Dec-69	24,709	$86.47	$25,638,687,737	71,240	2.8832
Dec-70	25,701	$101.35	$31,257,463,769	70,790	2.7544
Dec-71	26,817	$113.22	$36,435,282,006	72,108	2.6888
Dec-72	28,066	$138.70	$46,712,482,840	75,270	2.6819
Dec-73	29,514	$143.99	$50,996,092,215	78,035	2.6440
Dec-74	30,576	$163.02	$59,813,483,661	77,657	2.5398
Dec-75	31,862	$179.29	$68,549,741,469	78,017	2.4486
Dec-76	32,835	$194.95	$76,815,361,682	80,448	2.4500
Dec-77	33,923	$211.16	$85,958,416,484	84,408	2.4882
Dec-78	34,453	$229.86	$95,032,473,435	88,674	2.5738
Dec-79	35,013	$258.37	$108,555,575,502	90,669	2.5896
Dec-80	35,526	$300.75	$128,213,644,374	90,936	2.5597
Dec-81	35,930	$340.84	$146,956,770,724	90,884	2.5295
Dec-82	35,778	$372.10	$159,755,010,234	88,756	2.4808
Dec-83	36,034	$393.15	$170,001,091,973	92,210	2.5590
Dec-84	36,439	$412.21	$180,244,135,062	96,087	2.6370
Dec-85	37,027	$429.35	$190,768,953,436	98,587	2.6626
Dec-86	37,683	$438.76	$198,407,802,022	100,484	2.6665
Dec-87	38,171	$461.35	$211,323,314,397	103,634	2.7150
Dec-88	38,613	$484.01	$224,268,374,172	106,871	2.7678
Dec-89	39,141	$511.89	$240,431,129,294	108,809	2.7799
Dec-90	39,825	$544.52	$260,224,095,454	109,120	2.7400
Dec-91	40,587	$568.55	$276,908,006,552	108,262	2.6674
Dec-92	41,504	$588.90	$293,296,976,201	109,416	2.6363
Dec-93	42,243	$607.48	$307,943,241,597	112,204	2.6561
Dec-94	42,882	$628.14	$323,229,663,108	116,055	2.7064
Dec-95	43,386	$648.77	$337,772,228,816	118,208	2.7246
Dec-96	43,736	$672.81	$353,113,695,411	121,002	2.7666
Dec-97	43,971	$692.82	$365,565,297,977	124,357	2.8282
Dec-98	44,246	$707.39	$375,585,941,872	127,359	2.8785
Dec-99	44,595	$730.53	$390,940,040,819	130,533	2.9270
Dec-00	45,415	$767.35	$418,187,686,581	132,481	2.9171
Dec-01	45,877	$795.69	$438,050,881,510	130,720	2.8493
Dec-02	46,444	$815.05	$454,253,081,458	130,175	2.8028
Dec-03	47,038	$840.62	$474,497,794,254	130,259	2.7692
Dec-04	47,688	$871.80	$498,889,778,321	132,316	2.7746
Dec-05	48,434	$915.71	$532,222,768,675	134,814	2.7834
Dec-06	49,123	$955.53	$563,260,007,133	136,882	2.7865
Dec-07	49,865	$987.03	$590,618,750,824	137,982	2.7671
Dec-08	50,898	$1,054.38	$643,995,009,294	134,379	2.6401
Dec-09	52,523	$1,064.41	$670,869,765,261	129,319	2.4621
Dec-10	54,032	$1,074.33	$696,579,633,240	130,346	2.4124
Dec-11	55,404	$1,122.89	$746,557,638,566	132,186	2.3858
Dec-12	56,758	$1,152.79	$785,163,217,034	134,021	2.3613

Notes for Above Table
Employment and beneficiary numbers are in thousands.
I computed the total annual cost as monthly benefit * 12 * number of beneficiaries. That method will tend to overstate annual costs slightly vs. totaling every month individually. Thus, the total cost may vary slightly from other published figures.

Average Monthly Social Security Benefit



Total Annual Cost of Social Security 1967-Present



Social Security Beneficiaries vs. Total Non-Farm Employment



Ratio of Workers to Social Security Beneficiaries



Social Security Benefits Analysis

• The ratio of workers to beneficiaries peaked in 1999 at 2.927 to 1.
• The ratio of workers to beneficiaries was 2.361 to 1 at the end of 2012.
• The ratio of workers to beneficiaries is falling fast and will continue to fall fast for a decade as the baby boomer population ages.
• The average payout and the number of payouts are both rising fast
• Total Social Security payouts (a multiplication of two rising numbers) are on an unsustainable exponential growth path.

The system is currently running a deficit. Trends say that deficit is going to worsen with each passing year unless benefits are cut and/or taxes are hiked.