Sunday, January 6, 2013

Startling Look at Employment Demographics by Age Group: Spotlight on Age 25-54

Last month I posted a chart showing employment by age group. Here is an update as of Friday's job release.

Employment Demographics by Age Group



click on chart for sharper image

Note that 100% of the job growth since the recession is in age group 55 and over.

Last month, someone proposed the above chart was blatantly misleading because it does not reflect the aging workforce.

Let's investigate that hypothesis with a look at actual data (numbers in tables and charts in thousands).

Civilian Institutional Population (CP) and Labor Force (LF)

Year16-19 CP20-24 CP25-54 CP55+ CP16-19 LF20-24 LF25-54 LF55+ LF
200015912183111206565769782711425010139318668
200115929188771216045868379021455710178919485
200215994193481220776015175851478110171920778
200316096198011232896198171701492810230922104
200416222201971234106352771141515410212223011
200516398202761241756523371641512710277324257
200616678202651248846698872811511310356625468
200716982204271256966876170121520510435326554
200817075204091256527065268581517410439627858
200917043205241255657266863901497110374229040
201016901210471252907459159061502810294030014
201116774214231247047671657271527010174430876
201216984217991243148018758231546210125332437

Age Group 25-54 Key Facts

  • In 2007 the civilian population was 125,652,000 
  • In 2007 the labor force was 104,353,000
  • In 2012 the civilian population was 124,314,000
  • In 2012 the labor force was 101,253,000

Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables.

Simply put, the decrease in civilian population in age group 25-54 was 1,340,000. The decrease in the labor force was a staggering 3,100,000!

Let's explore this idea in still more detail looking at employment, unemployment, and non-employment.

Spotlight on Age Group 25-54

Year25-54 CP25-54 LF25-54 Employed25-54 Not Employed25-54 Unemployed
200012065610139398292223643102
200112160410178997948236563842
200212207710171996823252544896
200312328910230997178261115131
200412341010212297472259384650
200512417510277398517256584256
200612488410356699672252123894
2007125696104353100450252463904
200812565210439699369262835027
200912556510374295144304218597
201012529010294094082312088858
201112470410174493674310308069
201212431410125394150301647103

Notes

  1. Unemployment is the difference between employment and the labor force. 
  2. Not-employed is the difference between employment and the civilian population. 
  3. Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables. 
  4. There may be rounding errors.

More Key Facts For Age Group 25-54

  • Between 2007 and 2012 the civilian population declined by 1,340,000
  • Between 2007 and 2012 the labor force declined by 3,100,000
  • Between 2007 and 2012 employment fell from 100,450,000 to 94,150,000.
  • Between 2007 and 2012 employment declined by 6,300,000 jobs on a mere decrease in the civilian population of 1,340,000!

Let's take a look at the above table in chart form.

Civilian Population, Labor Force, Employed, Not-Employed 



click on chart for sharper image

Irrefutable Evidence Falling Employment Not Based on Boomer Demographics

This plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 is irrefutable proof that the drop in employment and the falling participation rate is not based on aging boomer demographics.

By calculation, 4,960,000 jobs (6,300,000 - 1,340,000) simply vanished into thin air (in age group 25-54 alone).

Thus, the plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 also provides strong evidence the stated unemployment rate of 7.8% is bogus by a more sensible measure of unemployment.

Better Measure of Unemployment

I propose this simple definition: If you want a job, are physically able to work a job, and you don't have a job, then you are unemployed.

Actual measures are purposely defined to hide the true state of the economy.

For a close scrutiny of the latest jobs report, please see Establishment Survey +155,000 Jobs; Household Survey +28,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Revised Up, Flat Since September

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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